Week 4, not week 2, is the first big time weekend in college football. Why? Because the only conference that really matters is getting kicked into 5th gear this weekend with huge games all over the place. This is make your mark Saturday and I think there will be a lot of separation between the perception of how these teams are viewed.
I am out of town right now so I don't know who won the Miami, Fl/Pittsburgh game. I hope it was entertaining and that I enjoyed watching it in Olive Branch. I will be heading down to Starkville, Mississippi tomorrow for the Mississippi State/Georgia game. It should be a great game between two teams that have mirrored each other for the first 3 games of the season. Think about the similarities: they both played at home in week one and blew out a much lesser opponent by 40+ points. Then they faced an inner-divsion rival in a bordering state in week 2, and they both lost with the winner of the game scoring 17 points. Then they both played a second conference game in week 3 and lost. Both teams are named the Bulldogs and each one has struggled with execution. Georgia's offense has performed better than State's, and State's defense has been better than UGA's. Georgia has played 3 games at noon, State has played 3 games at 7:00 P.M. EST. So there are all these similarities, so what can make up the difference? A.J. Green is going to be suspended for this game too...his final one, so that won't be it. Georgia has struggled against the run and State's offensive line has played well so far this year and the game is being played in Starkville. Plus I will be present so that could be enough for MSU to pull it off. The spread favors State by 1 1/2 points (I never thought we'd be favored against UGA) and I don't like us to cover, but just to win by a point....27-26.
Alabama vs. Arkansas is so huge I can't describe it. This game is pitting my #1 SEC team vs. #2 in the best conference in the land, what more do you need to know? And it's going to be in Fayettville, a tough place to play. Bama lost 7 of their top 8 defensive backs so this is a HUGE test for them against Ryan Mallett and the Hogs' top of the SEC receiving corps. That young secondary hasn't been tested like they will tomorrow. The Tide's offense looks like the most balanced, best offense in the nation right now, and that is amazing since they won the national title last year with the best defense. A lot of times people expect two high-powered offenses like this to score 30+ points in a great shootout but I don't follow that when it's a top 25 matchup. The defenses will come to play and have something to prove, and that is worth two less touchdowns for each team. I think Alabama will narrowly escape, and they'll need a huge defensive stop in the 4th quarter to do so, 24-21 Bama.
And now on the the 3rd huge game in the SEC, South Carolina at Auburn. This is a matchup of two top 15 team and it's not even the biggest game in the SEC this week! Auburn had a bruising overtime game with Clemson last week and South Carolina played Furman, so that is a decided edge to the Gamecocks. Garcia threw 2 interceptions against Furman that led to scores, one of them a pick six. He will need to bounce back and stay away from the turnovers if they are going to win on the road against a solid team like Auburn. South Carolina has not really had to face any adversity and come from behind so far and it could happen here, and be compounded being on the road in a hostile environment. Auburn's running game looks improved and it will be the best South Carolina has faced this year. Cam Newton is a force, but he will need big help from his offensive line in passing downs. I give the edge to South Carolina in this one because I think their defense will be too much for Auburn's line in the 2nd half, and their offense has the ability to keep Newton off the field. I picked Auburn to win this one in the preseason but after coming off back to back tough games I think Auburn is worn down and USC is fresh, 23-17 Gamecocks.
How about another big game in the SEC? Kentucky at Florida. Three weeks ago no one would have said Kentucky had a shot in the swamp but I think the way these two are headed in opposite directions it looks like there is a potential for the Wildcats to break their horrible 23 game losing streak to the Gators. Kentucky's offense has some great players and they seem to be clicking on all cylinders albeit against inferior competition. Florida has struggled on offense and done so twice at home so there really isn't much reason to think things will be much different against an improving Kentucky D. UK has a solid defensive secondary and I don't think they will allow hardly any movement from Florida's putrid down-field passing game. But still, you can't deny the power and strength of the Gators, especially at home. I really want to pick Kentucky in this game, and I think a lot of things are in their favor but I just can't. I do think they will cover the 14 point spread, but the Gators win 24-17.
LSU is rated #15, they are playing #22 West Virginia, so it's another big game! LSU showed the ability to prevent turnovers at home last week against Mississippi State and I think they will be able to do the same this week. They've got the athletes to compete with anyone in the country but their coaching is so bad the office is not going to win them any games. So they are going to win this year on the back of Patrick Peterson....defense and special teams, try not to turn the ball over on offense and grind a victory out. West Virginia had to come from behind to narrowly escape lowly Marshall in overtime in week two, and then they almost blew a huge lead last week hosting Maryland but held on, they are 3-0. But I don't think West Virginia has the tools to beat LSU, especially not on the road. LSU wins 20-14.
That pretty much does it for the great SEC games -- 5 of them! This could be the top weekend of the year in the SEC, we'll see how the season shakes out. Tennessee needs to win against UAB if they want to have a shot at a bowl this year, and I think they will get the job done in their 4th home game in a row to start the season. Ole Miss is facing Fresno State at home...interesting matchup. Fresno State is pretty good and Ole Miss sucks and has lost both of their home games this year. I picked Fresno before the year and there's no reason to change my pick.
Elsewhere around the country I'm falling asleep, big dud. Gameday is going to Boise, Idaho for Oregon State at Boise State. That's because they've spent the last two weekends in the SEC (3 including Chick-Fil-A kickoff classic). And I'll admit that is a pretty big game, for Boise at least. I picked them to go to the national title so I will stand behind them, and big. Georgia Tech is at home against surprise 3-0 North Carolina State, I'll take GT. Somehow Notre Dame has been able to make their way onto my picks every week, they lose to a good Stanford team at home. Oregon's first PAC 10 game is at Arizona State, and it's the best team they've faced so far...still Oregon should cover the 11 point spread. I'm searching and searching for a decent national game to predict to get to 6 games...can't find much... Texas over UCLA big. How about Arkansas State at Troy...good Sun Belt matchup, I'll go with Troy at home.
JB
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