October, what a great month... 5 Saturdays! There are plenty of big games this week and nationally I'm expecting the pretenders to fall back where they belong. I'm not expecting too much out of this weekend in the SEC, although you never know when upsets and great games are going to happen.
South Carolina has played very well at home all season and I don't expect much to chance this week vs. Tennessee. The Vols just have no depth at all and can't stick with anyone in the second half. Hopefully for them they will just come away injury free so they can make a legit run at a bowl game starting next week at Memphis. South Carolina wins by 3 touchdowns.
The Georgia/Florida game is a really hard one to predict, maybe the hardest all season. Coming off a bye week one would think Urban Meyer will be able to assemble all his talent into a good team but who knows. Florida has shown no signs of life on offense all year except against Kentucky. Aaron Murrey, Washaun Ealey, and A.J. Green are rolling right now and that is no good at all against a Florida defense that mediocre at best. Florida has lost three in a row, Georgia has won three in a row. All the momentum is with the Dawgs but Florida has won 17 of 20 and I think Georgia has a mental block with this game every year. I could go either way, I just don't know what to expect out of the Gators. But I'm going to pick Georgia to win, 27-24.
Vanderbilt is going to Arkansas in what should be a blowout game. After this game Arkansas is going to South Carolina and Mississippi State and hosting LSU. They need this one to be easy, and they need to find a way to run the ball before they go to Columbia. Vanderbilt has absolutely no offense unless Warren Norman can somehow bust a run against the odds. Arkansas wins big. LSU and Alabama have a bye week to prepare for each other.
Mississippi State is hosting Kentucky in what is a big game for both teams. Both of these schools are at about the same level within the SEC, and the winner will have a big advantage when it comes to bowl positioning later in the year. Kentucky is giving up 193 yards rushing per game, 10th in the SEC. Mississippi State runs the ball, and then runs some more. Kentucky has the 2nd best passing offense in the league, Mississippi State has the 3rd best passing defense. In Kentucky's 4 losses they are -7 in turnover margin, in their 4 wins they are +8. Mississippi State is tied for 5th in the SEC in most forced turnovers. All these things benefit State, and it's in Starkville. Bulldogs win, 38-27.
Auburn at Ole Miss is a trap game, there's no doubt about it. Jeramiah Masoli had his best game at Arkansas last week throwing for over 300 yards and that is exactly what Auburn's mediocre secondary doesn't want to see. With the game being in Oxford this one is going to be back and forth the whole game, much like most of Ole Miss and Auburn's games this year. Being in Oxford, if Ole Miss can jump out to a 14+ point lead in the first half I think they win the game. But if Auburn can keep the game in front of them and either maintain a small lead or only be trailing by a small margin they will be able to win because there is no way Ole Miss stops Cam Newton on the ground. Auburn wins, 31-24.
I am picking the pretenders, Missouri and Michigan State to fall this weekend at Nebraska and at Iowa respectively. I am also going to go 4 weeks in a row on the #1 team being upset (AP this time).. USC beats Oregon at home. I really am not just picking upsets for the sake of upsets...going on the road is tough, and all these top ranked teams have flaws and certainly Missouri and Michigan State have really done nothing to prove they are elite teams. Oklahoma State over Kansas State, Oregon State over Cal, and Air Force over Utah.
JB
No comments:
Post a Comment