Cam Newton was the story in the offseason, then he was the story on the field in October, now he's the story off the field in November. I was a little surprised by the lack of coverage it received nationally last weekend, but I think it was handled just right because as I said he is innocent until proven guilty. It will be interesting to see where the new allegations that Cecil Newton told Mississippi State it would take more than a scholarship will go. As well as Cam Newton telling State that the money was too much to pass up at Auburn. And then there's the 'I don't know how credible he is' Kenny Rogers giving a first hand account that Cecil Newton told him it would take $100-180k to secure Cam's services. As far as the academic cheating at Florida, I really don't think that has anything to do with the story about him possibly getting paid to sign. Auburn fans have given us all great examples on how to over-react and get defensive and how to misinterpret a story, but let's just put it all on the back-burner, it's crunch time in football.
Kentucky's got a shot to get bowl-eligible at home vs. Vanderbilt. They've got to do it, and I think they will. Vandy has done nothing lately other than get blown away, I don't see why it should be any different here. The Cats run all over them. Arkansas is playing UTEP and LSU is playing Lousiana-Monroe...so I am picking the SEC in those games. None of these games interest me very much but the remaining four SEC games have plenty of interest.
The day is getting started with Ole Miss at Tennessee. This game is extremely important for both teams, and UT has no margin for error if they want to go to a bowl game this year. This is what makes this game exciting...they are in the bottom 3 of the SEC but there's no doubt both teams are going to scratch and claw for a victory. Where was I but Ole Miss has the second bast rushing attack in the SEC (only 136 years/game behind Auburn). Tennessee's rushing defense is rubbing elbows with the worst teams in the SEC (Ole Miss being one of them). And that goes for almost every other category you can think of as well, these two teams are floundering at the bottom of the SEC, and that's why they aren't winning. But Tennessee's got two things going for them: they are at home and they've found a new QB, Tyler Brey. Tennessee's got to have this one, and they haven't given up which is important. Ole Miss has been sloppy and inconsistent all year. I'm going with the Vols by a field goal in this game.
Next up, Georgia at Auburn. The stakes are really great for both teams, but at the same time they both have margin for error. With Georgia, they want to get bowl-eligible...they can lose this game but if they do they've got to beat Georgia Tech in two weeks at home. For Auburn, they want to clinch the SEC Western Division Championship...they can lose as well but if they do they've got to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in two weeks (provided Bama doesn't lose to MSU and LSU doesn't lose to Ole Miss or Arkansas). Obviously Auburn is better in almost every phase of the game statistically having doubled Georgia's win output at this point in the season. It will be interesting to see how Mark Richt plays it, is he going to try and outscore Auburn with his talented offense, or is he going to try and grind it out running the ball and milking the clock in a game of keep away. Could the Cam Newton situation be a distraction - I'm not sure but I don't think it will be, mostly because I think Gus Malzahn relies more on running his plays than counteracting the defense. The games between these two are always close, and a lot of times there is an upset, but I think Auburn has too much on the line and they come out firing. Auburn wins 45-28.
Mississippi State at Alabama. Both teams have the same record. Again, Mississippi State has the same record as Alabama on the second Saturday in November. While Alabama is stretching out their legs and wiping their eyes from that defeat at LSU I'm not sure they are aware of what kind of team in coming to town tomorrow. Alabama players probably don't remember when State was good, but even with that said Bama's streak over MSU is only 2...and they've only won 2 of the last 4 games. Putting all that aside, this game is always pretty close. It wasn't last year with Bama winning 31-3, but two years ago State lead then #1 Alabama 7-5 with a couple minutes to go before the half...then it got out of hand. State won in '07 and '06 in Tuscaloosa. In '05 an undefeated Alabama team came to Starkville and struggled to put points on the board before pulling away in the 4th quarter and winning 17-0. But none of that has anything to do with this year's game. This year's game will be about two teams from opposite ends of the spectrum in the preseason, one who has overachieved and one who has underachieved.
-Who has the advantage when State has the ball?
Alabama is holding teams to 70 less yards then State is averaging per game.
Alabama's weakness is their secondary, State is averaging 107 yards passing a game, 11th in the SEC..nowhere near 10th place.
Alabama is tied for 9th with 1.6 sacks a game, State is first in sacks allowed at .8 a game.
Alabama is leading the SEC in interceptions, State only INT in the last 7 games has been an unimportant one vs. Alcorn State.
Bama is allowing 16.2 points per game, State is scoring 15.8.
-Who has the advantage when Alabama has the ball?
Mississippi State is giving up 6 less yards than Bama is averaging per game.
Both Alabama's passing offense and State's passing defense is ranked 5th in the SEC.
State is 7th with 2.2 sacks a game, Bama is 11th in sacks allowed at 3.4 a game.
Bama has turned the ball over the least of any SEC team, but State is near the top in turnovers gained.
State is allowing 16.4 points per game, Bama is scoring 28.
What does all this mean?
Despite State's ability to run, it will be much tougher in this game, however, Chris Relf or Tyler Russell should have plenty of time to throw the ball. State hasn't thrown for many yards, but they haven't really had to...they also haven't been throwing interceptions. State should be able to move the ball enough to get to their 15-16 point average. Alabama should be able to run and throw the ball just as well as they have all year. The key for State's defense is pressuring Greg McElroy, getting sacks and forcing him into bad throws which he tends to do. If State can bring pressure with the blitz and force a couple INTs they've got a shot to win this game. At the beginning of the season never in a million years would I have picked State to win this game. I was close to feeling this way about the Florida game too, but I picked State. Something about this team, their grit and determination is special. Not to mention they have the motivation to play for Nick Bell. After two weeks of preparation I think Mullen will come out with a good game plan and the players will be ready to execute. It's a big stadium but State has already played at Death Valley and the Swamp so they are used to it. Alabama played a hard fought game at LSU last week. Mississippi State 17 Alabama 16. Go Dawgs!
Who would've thought that the SEC East would come down to South Carolina at Florida? Well, I did. That said I had South Carolina winning this game to advance to the SEC Championship Game, and I'm not going to change my pick. I've stuck with the Gamecocks all year long and even after that poor poor performance vs. Arkansas last week I still think they will muster enough to get the job done. It's never happened for them, but this has got to be the year and I think it will be.
Baylor over Texas A&M, UNC over VA Tech, and Florida State over Clemson.
JB
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