Friday, November 5, 2010

College Football - Week 10

Five SEC teams are playing non-conference games tomorrow. Three of them are playing Division I-AA schools. So Auburn, Georgia, and Kentucky should all roll. For Auburn, you got to figure Cam Newton needs a little rest. If he gets more than 25 yards on the ground in this game it will be by mistake because there is no way they call any running plays. And if he plays one down in the second half I would be surprised, this will just be a glorified scrimmage to prepare for Georgia. Speaking of which Georgia really needed this easy win to put them in a position of have a chance at a bowl. This game will put them at 5-5 with games at Auburn and vs. Georgia Tech remaining. Kentucky also needs this win because they are looking to go to a bowl, which I think they will ultimately get. Their six most winnable games were the first three and the last three of the season.

Mississippi State has the week off. That is a good thing with the passing of Nick Bell. It is unfortunate what happened, hopefully they will be able to honor him next week.

Ole Miss is hosting Louisiana-Lafayette in what should be an easy win but who knows with them. Ole Miss absolutely has to have this game and I think they will come out strong and win this one pretty easy. Tennessee is going to Memphis and they better win this one. I will hand it to Derek Dooley because his guys keep fighting even though they keep losing. They are just a bad SEC team, but still that is enough to beat a bad C-USA team, even on the road.

Arkansas at South Carolina is a pretty big game. If South Carolina wins they can eliminate Georgia completely from SEC East contention with regards to any possible three way ties and assure that next week's game at Florida will be for the East crown. For Arkansas, they have a legitimate shot at a 10-win season with a run down the stretch. Greg Childs is out for the year, which will help out some for South Carolina's 11th ranked pass defense (in the SEC). But by the same token South Carolina's rush defense is 3rd in the SEC and the Hogs are 9th in rushing offense. Arkansas' rush defense is dead last in the SEC, and we all know what Marcus Lattimore can do. South Carolin's passing game vs. Arkansas' pass defense is strength vs. strength so maybe those cancel each other out. I picked Arkansas to win this game before the season because I thought South Carolina would be 7-1 and looking ahead to next week at Florida. As it is, the Gamecocks are not so highly ranked with a 6-2 record and Florida isn't their usual selves so I think USC will be able to focus on this game at home. This isn't a must win for South Carolina, which is surprising since it would be their 3rd loss, however, it's at home where they play well and I think they will come out and pound the ball and their defense will make Ryan Mallett remain one dimensional and he will throw a couple picks in the process. South Carolina 34 Arkansas 28

No doubt that Florida at Vanderbilt will be a snooze fest. Who wants to see these mediocre offenses and lackluster defenses go after each other. Vandy has done a good job getting out in front the last couple games but they haven't done much after the 2nd quarter. I don't expect much different here. Florida gets it done and sets up the showdown in the Swamp next week.

Two top 10 SEC teams going after it in Death Valley, what could be better? Not sure, so I'll be tuned in to watch what should be a really hard-hitting LSU/Alabama game. LSU could be dumber after listening to Les Miles for two weeks, or they could actually come out with some decent play...who knows. The one thing LSU can do right now is run the ball, they are 3rd in the SEC, the problem here is that is what Bama does best. I don't expect LSU to be able to do anything at all on offense. LSU's secondary is so good I'm not sure Julio Jones and co. will be able to get anything going in the air either, especially with Drake Nevis passing through Bama's underachieving O-line to pressure McElroy. So that leaves it up to the run game for Alabama which is very good. I expect both teams to play it very close to the vest and the score to be really low...but an exciting game. In looking for an edge on special teams I don't see one for LSU with Alabama having the best kickoff coverage in the SEC, but I do think they hold an advantage with their great kicker. In the end I think Alabama will pull it out, mostly because giving Nick Saban two weeks to prepare is a disaster for the other team...otherwise I might pick LSU. Bama wins 10-6.

After looking at the schedule of national games, I don't even have the energy to look around to see who I want to pick, so I'll go with the two biggest games. The national scope of college football just doesn't interest me beyond rooting for teams to lose so they will pave way for SEC teams. In the NFL I only watch the Falcons. MLB I only watch the Braves. NBA, the Hawks. Maybe I'm not that big of a fan of the sports themselves as much as I am a fan of my favorite teams...and in college football I am a huge Mississippi State fan and a big SEC fan secondly.

I've watched about 20 minutes combined of TCU and Utah, so I don't really know much. As far as I'm concerned they are equal so I'll have to pick off of other possible factors. The game is in Utah, TCU has not won there in three tries. TCU has never won a BCS Bowl, Utah has won two. Utah is heading to the PAC 12, TCU realizes this could be their last shot at a national title for a while. The winner knows they will be at least #3 in the BCS. I'll go with TCU to win. I'll also pick Stanford over Arizona.

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