Here it is, my predictions for the upcoming year of SEC Football. When I say I love college football, what I really mean is I love SEC football. The rest of it is like the NFL to me, I like it because it's football but I really love the SEC. So, that is what I care about and that is what I'm going to predict. Beyond that I'll give enough thought for a National Top 20 to see where I end up. Here goes...
EAST
1. South Carolina, 6-2 (10-2) - The Gamecocks have 16 returning starters and 83% of their lettermen returning. They are the only team in the east with a proven quarterback, and I think that Spurrier will be able to finally put it all together in Columbia. They also have another really good defense behind Ellis Johnson and they have 5-star running back recruit Marcus Lattimore joining 9 returning offensive starters. I am predicting a big early season win vs. Georgia, a loss at Auburn, and then another HUGE win vs. Alabama. These great victories would probably land South Carolina in the top 10 by Halloween and looking forward to a monumental game against a top 5 Florida team in mid-November. That is when they overlook Arkansas at home and lose before facing Florida. Even with a loss it still sets up a huge match-up between Florida and South Carolina for the SEC East crown, one I am calling for USC to win and finally get over the hump to the SEC Championship Game. I think they have the talent and coaching to get this done, but with their incredibly difficult schedule they could easily go 6-6 if they fall back into the same mistakes they always make.
2. Florida, 6-2 (10-2) - The Gators are going to be really good again. Even though they only return 63% of their lettermen, their usual competitors Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia are down from their usual standards. Florida has a #1 recruiting class coming in and already has a great line on both sides of the ball. BUT they are going to Tuscaloosa in what is going to be a huge game, maybe even a #1 vs. #2 match-up. While the two teams are pretty evenly matched I think Bama will end up with the win being at home and having the leadership of Greg McElroy. From there I think the Gators rebound in tough home games against LSU, Mississippi State and Georgia. Everything will be setup for a winner-take-all game against South Carolina in the swamp, which I am predicting the Gamecocks to win. Florida narrowly escaped USC in 2006 before winning the national title and I think they could have a similar game this year. Their final game at Florida State could get interesting as well.
3. Georgia, 4-4 (8-4) - Georgia could go undefeated this year or they could miss a bowl game, they are the biggest swing team in the SEC. They've got 10 returning starters on offense, everyone but the quarterback. So I'm throwing a lot of importance on how redshirt freshman Aaron Murrey is going to perform. He was a 5-star recruit so expectations are high but there is always a learning curve in the SEC; but he's got great running backs, a future Top 10 NFL draft pick in A.J. Green, and the best offensive line in the SEC. Then they are bringing in a new defensive coordinator to a mediocre defense with 5 returning starters, so I'm not sure how that will pan out. I basically took them winning at home and losing on the road in September with their young QB, and then just losing at Auburn and against Florida the rest of the way.
4. Kentucky, 2-6 (6-6) - I like Joker Philips and I think he'll keep up the pretty good teams that Rich Brooks established. Randall Cobb might be the best athlete in the SEC, and he will keep Kentucky in some games with his speed and quickness alone. The Cats have just 5 starters on offense, and 6 on D coming back off a team that was just mediocre last year. UK will be hard pressed to get to 6 wins but I think they will pull out the season opener at Louisville because of the Cards poor defense. After that they've got another easy September until Florida comes calling, and I think they are looking at 6 straight losses to put them at 3-6. Then I think the Wildcats will finish strong winning their last 3 games including finally beating Tennessee after 25 straight years of losing.
5. Tennessee, 1-7 (4-8) - I like Derek Dooley a ton more than Lane Kiffin but he has nothing to work with this year. Unless he gets a ton of help from their freshman class I don't see much happening in Knoxville. I think the defense will be pretty good with 6 returning starters and a boatload of incoming talent, but the offense will struggle milady with 3 returning starters (they are replacing QB, RB, and the entire offensive line). All of the O-linemen on UT's roster have a combined 3 starts. After a cupcake game against UT Martin, it's going to be a rough go against Oregon, Florida, UAB, at LSU, at Georgia, Alabama, & at South Carolina. I think they will come out of that with one win (against UAB) and it won't be easy. After that they recover as usual in November to avoid the cellar of the SEC east.
6. Vanderbilt, 0-8 (2-10) - I am terrible about picking Vanderbilt to go 0-8, I probably do it every other year, so yes I did pick them to go 0-8 in '08 when they started 5-0 and went to a bowl game. It is hard for me to pick them to win games when I know the other team has superior talent, but they do manage to eak-out a couple games each season. However, with Bobby Johnson leaving just a month before training camp starts I think it will throw a wrench into what I think is about the same old Vandy. I think they will be competitive, but they won't be able to enter the win column in the SEC. They aren't helping themselves by playing the ever-improving Northwestern and Connecticut, but I've got them winning against Eastern Michigan and then pulling one out at home vs. Wake Forest on the last game of the season.
WEST
1. Alabama 7-1, (11-1) - Nick Saban has Alabama rolling and I don't see it slowing much this year. They have supreme talent at every position and are stacked in every unit. Probably the least talented unit is the quarterback position, but as we all know Greg McElroy hasn't lost a game since the 8th grade and is without a doubt the smartest QB in college football...so things don't look good for everybody else. There only weakness could be only returning 2 starters on defense, but they have great talent. The defense could be a handicap early against a ranked Penn State team but I think Bama ends up winning that game by double digits. After the first 3 games I think the defense will be as solid as ever and ready for the real test that comes at Arkansas, vs. Florida, and at South Carolina. Those 3 games will all be incredibly difficult and I'm calling for them to lose that final game at USC. This is a product of 3 consecutive really tough games, being on the road, and the Gamecocks should be much improved this year. After that I think the Tide cruise all the way to the Iron Bowl which should be tightly contested but I think they will pull it out since it's in Tuscaloosa.
2. Auburn, 6-2 (10-2) - Auburn has high hopes and a favorable schedule. I can almost see them going into the Iron Bowl undefeated, but I'm 95% sure they will lose somewhere in their first 11 games. With 8 returning starters on defense I look for them to improve a lot. Cam Newton should be good but I'm anticipating a struggle against Mississippi State and a loss on the road. The rest of their tough games against Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia are all at home until the Alabama game. Most of those games should be tightly contested but I'm giving Auburn the edge with their home field advantage. Based on these predictions, that would mean the Iron Bowl would be for the western division crown with Auburn 10-1 (and most likely ranked in the top 10), and Alabama at 10-1 (and in the top 5). If Auburn doesn't lose to State, they will probably lose one of those other games...I just don't see Cam Newton and Gene Chizik providing enough to run the table.
3. Arkansas, 5-3 (9-3) - This is supposed to be Arkansas' year and I think they will have a good one. Ryan Mallett proved he was legit after last season, and even though he is coming off an off-season injury he should be 100% by the start of the season. Not only is he a huge threat, but Arkansas has the best wide receiving corps in the SEC and I don't anticipate Mallett ever throwing for less than 300 yards. They have 10 returning starters on offense and 7 on defense so a lot of people are jumping on the Arkansas bandwagon after turning their fortunes around last year, but they did have the 6th best turnover ratio in the nation so the ball may bounce differently this year. I have the Hogs losing vs. Alabama in a close game, at Georgia in a closely contested shootout, and another shootout at Auburn. However, that is in their first six games so they would be 3-3, is that enough to tear them apart or be the undoing of Bobby Petrino? I think he will save the rest of their season and finish 9-3 with 17 returning starters and 83% of their letermen returning. The game at home against Alabama on September 25th will be huge, and may mean the difference in winning the division or not.
4. LSU, 4-4 (7-5) - LSU has an incredibly difficult schedule facing North Carolina and West Virginia in the non-conference and going to Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas. Then they've got Alabama coming to death valley...probably the toughest schedule in the nation. The kickoff classic will be a really tough game, I think North Carolina will end up a top 10 team this year. Then after going to Vanderbilt, they face a scrappy Mississippi State team that has given them trouble the past two years. Then it's Big East contender West Virginia and Tennessee at home, but I think they will manage to be 4-1 before the sky starts falling in Baton Rouge. They've only got 10 returning starters coming off a 9-4 team and the recruiting has fallen off a bit from where it was during Miles' first couple years so they don't have as much depth. I predict LSU will lose 3 of the next 4 games to Florida, Auburn, and Alabama and Les Miles will be a lame duck. After losing to Arkansas I think Les Miles ends up getting fired for a disappointing 7-5 season (which is remarkable considering he has the 5th longest tenure in LSU history, 3rd most wins and the best winning percentage). However, after saying all that, I am predicting them to lose most of their swing games; they do have the capability to win each game they play. But with that difficult of a schedule and Les Miles' poor gameday coaching I don't see it happening.
5. Ole Miss, 4-4 (7-5) - The addition of Jeramiah Masoli helps Ole Miss out a lot. Without him I saw Ole Miss as team that would not go to a bowl (4-8) and finish last in the West. The Admiral Ackbars should have a defense that will keep them in games, but Masoli won't have much to work with (only 4 returning starters on offense)...and if he gets in trouble or is injured they are out of play-makers. So I still don't think they are very good, and I have them losing to Fresno State. They have a very easy schedule and miss all 3 top teams from the east which gets them to 4-4. As much as I hate it, I am going to predict they will win the Egg Bowl having a full season to come together as an offense, keeping with the home and home tradition of the past 6 years...but that is the only game against the western division I envision them winning.
6. Mississippi State, 3-5 (7-5) - I think State has a very strong team this year, and having them finish last in the West isn't a reflection on them as much as it is a tough western division, and most likely a strength of schedule that will rank in the top 5. State has 7 returning starters on offense and defense and that doesn't include Chris Relf who had significant playing time last year. I actually have State upsetting Auburn in Starkville on the second game of the season, mostly due to Auburn's new quarterback Cam Newton coming in for his first SEC game against MSU's new defensive coordinator. State will have a very good defensive line and secondary that will disrupt Auburn's run & shoot offense. I have a loss on the road at LSU, but then coming back to Starkville to win a shootout against Georgia. I am going out on yet another limb to say State will beat Houston on the road (Houston's only loss of the season). Then my expectations are less for the November slate, I've have a 7-2 start (and a national ranking) before losing the last 3 games. The Dawgs should be operating with a 2 QB system, with Tyler Russell as a redshirt freshman, so picking them to start out so strong is a risky move but they have the strongest offensive line they've had in a long time which will help out the quarterbacks tremendously.
SEC Championship Game: South Carolina vs. Alabama
Winner: Alabama
I think the SEC West will by far be the stronger division. My preseason SEC Power Rankings (who is the best on a neutral field) are like this:
1. Alabama (National Championship Game)
2. Florida (Sugar Bowl)
3. Arkansas (Cotton Bowl)
4. Auburn (Capitol One Bowl)
5. South Carolina (Gator Bowl)
6. LSU (Chick-Fil-A Bowl)
7. Georgia (Outback Bowl)
8. Mississippi State (Liberty Bowl)
9. Ole Miss (Music City Bowl)
10. Kentucky (Papa Johns.com Bowl)
11. Tennessee
12. Vanderbilt
The preseason polls are basically power polls. The writers and coaches don't really take the time to go through each schedule and dissect how they think each game will turn out. So, they just rank the teams based on how good they perceive them to be, instead of where they believe they will be ranked at the end of the season. That is ok, although if they are going to do that I'd rather them start with the final poll from the previous season. Here is my national Top 20, which is based on where each team will be after the regular season and conference championship games, but before the bowl games...
1. Boise State, 12-0 (WAC Champion) - I think Boise State has a legitimate shot at the national title. They have 21 of 22 starters returning and 92% of their lettermen returning! The game against Virginia Tech on September 6th is going to be HUGE, but I think the Broncos will pull that game out; VA Tech only has 4 returning starters on defense and 63% returning lettermen. Boise State has experience and something to prove. With an easy schedule aside from a home game against Oregon State remaining I don't see them losing. They definitely benefited from +21 turnovers last year (2nd in the nation), but I think a lot of them were forced because of their supreme talent in the WAC. I think voters will give the Broncos a shot because they proved they belonged last year in the BCS, and with essentially the same players they will make it to the big game.
2. Alabama, 12-1 (SEC Champion) - Alabama will have a chance to defend their national title, this time in Tempe, Arizona. Alabama will be favored in the national championship game, only losing because of their tough schedule. They will get the nod out of the 1-loss teams after back-to-back really good wins against Auburn and then South Carolina in the SEC title game, and because of the reputation the SEC has earned over the past few years.
3. Nebraska, 12-1 (Big 12 Champion) - Nebraska has a light Big 12 schedule being in the North; they don't have to play Oklahoma, and they get Texas at home. With 9 returning starters on offense they will be improved, and they are going to reload on defense. Possible slip-ups might be at Washington and at Texas A&M, and I think they will probably lose one of those games and then rebound to beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.
4. Iowa, 11-1 (Big 10 Champion) - Iowa has a good team but they have an even better schedule. All of their tough Big 10 games are at home, and I think they will close out the Big 10 Championship at home in a huge game against Ohio State on November 20th.
5. Ohio State, 11-1 - Ohio State is ranked #2 preseason, and most likely will hit the #1 spot at some point during the year. I have them losing late in the season to Iowa, and falling down to probably #4, then getting leap-frogged by Nebraska after the Big 12 Championship. They could also lose to Miami in September, but for now I'll pick the Buckeyes in that game since it's in Columbus. They have so much talent it's hard to see them losing but they seem to not be able to win the big one. They benefited from +17 turnovers last year so a turnaround in fortunes could cost them a couple games this year. However, they could easy be in the national championship game again.
6. Miami (FL), 11-2 (ACC Champion) - I think Miami is going to be really good this year, and if this were power rankings I would say they are the #3 team in the country. However, their schedule is so tough I think it will get the best of them a couple times. They play at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, and at Clemson in back-to-back-to-back games and I think they'll end up dropping at least one of them. They might also lose at Georgia Tech or vs. Virginia Tech but I'm calling for them to beat North Carolina to advance to the ACC Championship Game. Miami is back.
7. TCU, 11-1 (Mountain West Champion) - TCU is going to be really good again. I think they have a very strong chance to go undefeated, but I think their late game at Utah will cost them a shot at a national title. However, if they do go undefeated and Boise State does again, how do the voters react to those two teams being at the top (and they have played each other the last two years in bowl games) They've got 16 returning starters and I think their offense will rival their defensive dominance...I definitely see a BCS bowl for the Horned Frogs, and hopefully this year they will be pitted against a BCS school.
8. Florida, 10-2 - The Gators are going to be really good again, I just don't think they can get past Alabama, and with my bold prediction of South Carolina winning the east, they have to have 2 losses and they land at No. 8. If they are in the national championship game again, however, I will not be surprised at all.
9. Oregon, 10-2 (PAC 10 Champion) - The Ducks kicked Jeramiah Masoli off the team but that is about the only position that doesn't have experience. Coming off a 10-3 season in '09 the Ducks will benefit from USC's downturn. Despite an early trip to Tennessee, the first 3 games are pretty light...enough time for the new QB to get his feet wet. There are tough road trips to Arizona State, USC, Cal, and Oregon State and I think they can survive with only one loss but it will be really difficult so I'm calling for a 2nd loss. Still, they earn a second straight trip to the Rose Bowl to play Iowa.
10. North Carolina, 10-2 - Butch Davis has put together a great defense filled with talent and now they have 10 returning starters on offense to go along with it. I think they will lose at Miami, which will prevent them from going to the ACC Championship game. I think they will get some pub for beating LSU and they could be #1 or #2 when they face Miami if they can beat Georgia Tech and Clemson too. In my opinion, there are enough tough games on their schedule to keep them in the top 10 at this point in the season. The ACC should be much improved.
The Rest of the Top 20:
11. Houston, 12-1 (Conference USA Champion)
12. Oklahoma, 11-2
13. Texas, 10-2
14. Pittsburgh, 10-2 (Big East Champion)
15. Wisconsin, 10-2
16. Auburn, 10-2
17. South Carolina, 10-3
18. Virginia Tech, 9-3
19. West Virginia, 9-3
20. Arkansas, 9-3
National Champion: Alabama (reluctantly)
With predictions it is hard to guess the crazy upset that is going to happen and cause a slew of these great teams to have 2 or 3 losses. The bad thing about predictions is you never know who is going to step up, who is going to get injured, what team is going to fold under the pressure, or who's locker room didn't mesh and their talent didn't translate into wins. So you never know what is going to happen, but when you make predictions and you get them right it's a good feeling somewhere deep down. I'll have my NFL predictions ready next week.
JB
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