BCS Championship Game

Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0)

I don't agree with how college football determines a champion, but I will say that this is the best possible matchup if we are only going to select two teams to play for the title. And remember, this isn't the National Championship Game, this is the BCS Championship Game. That's because we'll never know just how good TCU is, and if they could beat the winner or loser of this game. I will always be in support of a playoff because TCU, Ohio State, and Stanford still deserve a shot...one loss, on the road shouldn't disqualify you from a Championship.

Nevertheless, this is the game we have and I'm okay with it. Auburn has had an incredible year, although I don't think this team is better than the 2004 team - mainly because of the defense. They have won in every way imaginable and they seem to be a team of destiny. Oregon has thrived on weak defenses in the PAC 10 and they have blown out pretty much everyone they've played.

The first question I have in this game is what will Oregon do when the game is close in the 4th quarter? While they are capable of getting out to a big lead and this not mattering, that is pretty unlikely for either team. And we know both teams can comeback from big deficits, Auburn did it against Clemson and Alabama, Oregon did it against Stanford. The only close game Oregon has been in was the Cal game, where they played a stalemate up by two the entire 4th quarter. Still, that was against an inferior opponent and Oregon defense maintained control of that game. How will Oregon's offense react if they are down by 3 or 7 points with 3 minutes to go?

Cam Newton has been the key for Auburn all year. He is what got them this far. He has been very durable this year despite all of his running and taking hard hits in the SEC. Will he be able to stay healthy all game - the otherwise durable Colt McCoy was injured in the 1st quarter for Texas last year and it completely changed the game. Assuming Newton stays healthy I don't see any reason to believe he will not have his standard 200 yards passing 150 yards rushing performance. And that is what Auburn needs from him to win - the standard performance he's given all year. So Auburn needs a offensive or defensive player other than him to step up and make big plays that they ordinarily don't to win the game. The same goes for Oregon.

It would be easy to say the team who has the ball last will win this game. But I'm not so sure that is accurate. We know that Gus Malzahn and Chip Kelly both like to run as many plays as possible throughout the game to wear down the defense. Well, both of these defenses see the same offense every day in practice...I think both defenses will be prepared physically. The key is who gets the most stops. Which defense will force a field goal or punt?

I think with Auburn large defensive line they will be able to get into Oregon's backfield in the first half. Auburn has started slow on various occasions but I don't think we'll see much of a hiccup from either team in the first quarter. In the 2nd quarter is where I think Auburn will get some stops and the game will be decided. Ultimately I think Oregon will find it hard to get in front of Auburn after halftime and they will come up short in the 4th quarter with their players never having been in this type of game before. Auburn wins 45-35.

JB