I am a huge advocate for a playoff. Not only do I want to settle it on the field, but I want to see hugely exciting playoff games on New Year's Day involving teams that deserve a shot at the National Title. Yesterday I gave the options for a playoff system, today I will show what they would look like this year and any consequences they would bring. Here goes...
16-team playoff: There are two ways to do this. The first way is to let the BCS formula, or a blue-ribbon group (similar to the NCAA tournament selection committee) determine the teams. The second way is to take the 11 conference champions and 5 at-large teams. With either scenario conference championship games would have to be eliminated because of the amount of games...so the first round would have been played last weekend (first Saturday in December) and at the higher seeds home stadium.
Using the BCS to determine the Top 16:
16 Alabama at 1 Auburn
15 Nevada at 2 Oregon
14 Oklahoma State at 3 TCU
13 Virginia Tech at 4 Stanford
12 Missouri at 5 Wisconsin
11 Boise State at 6 Ohio State
10 LSU at 7 Oklahoma
9 Michigan State at 8 Arkansas
I don't like this playoff at all. 1) There are two WAC teams. 2) Alabama is playing Auburn, a game that just happened. If you move the game so they don't have to play each other than Oregon has to play Alabama but Auburn gets to play Nevada? How is that fair at all...at least with the conference champion scenario the top two or three teams get an easier game. 3) This would have to be decided by a selection committee because you can't have VA Tech traveling across the country by Oklahoma State gets to drive hop, skip, and jump to their game in Fort Worth. And by creating a selection committee you're going to leave teams out just like in basketball. 4) Alabama could win it all, but they don't deserve a shot because they lost 3 games this year. I'd rather have Miami (OH) in the field even though they lost 4 games because I know they can't make it through. 5) Every single one of the Top 6's last game of the regular season had no real meaning since they were in anyway. Sure, they would play for seeding, but if their running back or linebacker was battling injury they would sit them for the playoff, thereby Alabama would have won the Iron Bowl and all of that seeding would have been destroyed.
Using 11 conference champions and 5 at-large:
16 Florida International at 1 Auburn
15 Miami (OH) at 2 Oregon
14 Central Florida at 3 TCU
13 UConn at 4 Stanford
12 Virginia Tech at 5 Wisconsin
11 Boise State at 6 Ohio State
10 LSU at 7 Oklahoma
9 Michigan State at 8 Arkansas
I like this one a lot better because it cancels out some of the stuff I mentioned above and also gives the Top 3 or 4 teams an easier game while the rest of the teams really have to battle to get in the 2nd round. However, it's still too many teams. I like conference championship games instead of this round. Virginia Tech lost James Madison, Michigan State lost to a 7-5 Iowa team by 31 points, UConn lost 4 games, Boise State had a horrible schedule and only tied for the WAC title. It's possible that any of those teams could make a run, maybe win a game or two, but they don't deserve to get a shot based on what they did in the regular season.
8-team playoff: If there was an 8-team playoff I would want to play all four games on New Year's Day, then the semifinals a week and a half later and then the Championship Game the Saturday of the weekend before the Superbowl. It would look like this
Sugar Bowl: 1 Auburn vs. 8 Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: 2 Oregon vs. 7 Arkansas
Orange Bowl: 3 TCU vs. 6 Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: 4 Stanford vs. 5 Wisconsin
Now, who wouldn't want to see these games? We've eliminated all the teams in the 16-team playoff that didn't have a worthy enough regular season, there aren't any cupcakes, and we can still have conference championship games. The second round might be hosted by the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl and then the Fiesta would get the Championship Game. The Sugar would have had it last year, it would rotate, so next year the Fiesta would only have first round action. I think this is a great setup because it includes all teams worthy of competing for a National Title. It allows a team to have one slip up...because after all, a conference road game loss might not really be that much of a slip up, it's tough to win those games. This, in my eyes, stands tall as the best option, the only downside is the travel burden it puts on a team's fans. Football relies on huge stadiums and 3 playoff games in far-away destinations in one month is too much for most fan bases. That would be the biggest obstacle to overcome.
4-team playoff: This is a great scenario because we can include those 'non-AQ' schools who go undefeated. TCU does not belong in a National Title Game this year with Oregon and Auburn going undefeated, but how good are they really? Even if they beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl they won't get any share of the National Championship, this would settle those debates. If this was going to be done I like playing it on New Year's Day and then waiting until the Saturday of the weekend before the Superbowl, give each team 3-4 weeks to prepare for the National Championship Game just like we gave them for the Semifinal.
4 Stanford vs. 1 Auburn
3 TCU vs. 2 Oregon
There could be some debate about whether or not you need to win your conference to get in, and I might agree with that. If Oregon had been #1 then Stanford would have played them, and that should've been duked out in a conference championship game. So maybe Wisconsin would be #4 here, but for the purpose of this discussion we are giving TCU a shot at the title.
Plus-One: Many in the media refer to the 4-team playoff as a 'plus-one model'. Well it's a 4-team playoff, but they don't want to say that because college presidents are so opposed to the word playoff. But a real plus one is playing the BCS bowls and after they're complete, ranking the teams and whoever comes out at #1 and #2, they will play for a National Title. The point of doing this is so that teams like TCU or Ohio State, who had weak schedules, would have to prove themselves against a really good team before they could qualify. The only fair way to do this would be to use traditional bowl pairings, it would look like this:
Rose: 2 Oregon vs. 5 Wisconsin
Sugar: 1 Auburn vs. 4 Stanford
Fiesta: 7 Oklahoma vs. 3 TCU
Orange: 13 Virginia Tech vs. 6 Ohio State
* I am making the assumption that UConn would be eliminated due to their poor record and Ohio State would replace them.
Those are some great games, but what if Wisconsin beats Oregon, Auburn beats Stanford, and TCU beats Oklahoma? Have we solved anything? Not really, TCU would be more legit but still left out of the party. And if you excluded Wisconsin they would have major beef. So I don't think this logic would work.
Tim Brando is not my favorite character, but he is an avid hater of the BCS. I agree with him that the only way to get a playoff is to start out with a 4-team playoff. Everyone wants to blow up the BCS and create a 16-team playoff, but that just won't work with the politics involved. It will have to start with a 4-team playoff and then it will stretch into an 8-team playoff 15-20 years later. Maybe 50 years from now there will be a 16-team playoff, but it's got to take baby steps. By then the population will be even greater so more teams will be legit contenders so I think a 16-team would work. But for now, I'll settle for a 4-team, but what I really want is an 8-team playoff.
JB
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