The National Championship Game

Well, really its LSU vs. Alabama, but isn't it the National Championship Game? These are clearly the two best teams in college football. Won't whoever makes it to #2 at the end of the regular season be a lesser team than either of these two? I think so. So this isn't a national semi-final. This is it. If the winner somehow gets upset during SEC play after this game..they should still make it to the BCS Title Game...because they have already won, this, the National Championship Game.

Here's how I see the matchups. When I say advantage, I only mean slight.

Quarterbacks: LSU
Runningbacks: Alabama
Receivers: LSU
Offensive Line: Alabama
Defensive Line: LSU
Linebackers: Alabama
Cornerbacks: LSU
Safeties: Alabama

Alabama's offensive line vs. LSU's defensive line: Alabama has the most experience, and best O line in the SEC...which means the country. LSU probably has the most athletic defensive line in the SEC. I won't say they are the most disruptive - I might give that to South Carolina - but they will present Bama's O line with their toughest challenge yet. Advantage: BAMA

LSU's offensive line vs. Alabama's defensive line: Bama's D-line is the weakness of their defense. That is to say their D-line is not the best D-line in the country. LSU's offensive line has performed extraordinarily well when you consider they lost Josh Dworaczyk before the season and have had plenty of nagging injuries since, and they are probably the 2nd best line in the SEC. Advantage: No one

Alabama's receivers vs. LSU's corners: If the Tide had Sammy Watkins and Justin Blackmon then they'd have the advantage. But they don't. If Tyrann Matthiu and Mo Claiborne are playing bump-and-run all night on Maze and Hanks, I'm not sure McCarron can get them more than 3 catches combined. I'm not sure, if I'm Bama's coaching staff, I even want to attempt throwing at them more than 10 yards downfield. Advantage: LSU

LSU's receivers vs. Alabama's corners: Bama has really good cornerbacks, Dre' Kirkpatrick and DeQuan Menzie are good, real good. But LSU counters with Rueban Randle, Odell Beckham, and throw in Russell Shepard too. This one looks like a dead heat to me. Advantage: No one

LSU's QBs vs. Alabama's QBs: realistically it's Lee & Jefferson vs. McCarron, I doubt Sims gets in the game. LSU's QBs have been in and out of games for 4 years (Jefferson getting 60% of that time). McCarron has had this year and some garbage time last year. How many big games has McCarron played in? None. I can't count on my hands how many Lee and Jefferson have. There is no doubt LSU has the advantage here. Maybe McCarron will be much better than both of them combined in a year or two...but they are about the same right now, and LSU has more experience...and depth. If Lee or Jefferson goes down, the other one comes in. If McCarron goes down, Sims comes in for Bama, and he's a freshman with about 60 minutes of total playing time. Advantage: LSU

Alabama's offense vs. LSU's defense: You have to figure LSU is going to take away any kind of vertical passing game for the Tide. They've got lock-down NFL corners on both sides and Bama doesn't have the top flight receivers to flat out beat them. So you know Trent Richardson and Bama's offensive line is the key for them. I think Bama will win up front 50-60% of the time if the offense is balanced. If A.J. McCarron cannot throw the ball at all then LSU is going to bring their safeties up and not allow the running game to get more than 3 yards per carry. McCarron will have to hit the slot receivers dead on and hope for a 7 yard gain. Richardson will have to fight and claw to get close to 100 yards. And while the key to moving the ball is getting behind Richardson, the key to not losing the game is McCarron testing LSU's secondary downfield, getting it picked off and LSU taking it to the house for an unexpected score. Advantage: LSU

LSU's offense vs. Alabama's defense: In an unnerving outlook, I think LSU needs to throw the ball to move it rather than run like Alabama. I say unnerving because Alabama probably has about as good of a secondary as LSU, and we've all seen what Lee and Jefferson have done in past seasons. Can Ware or Ford be the workhorse to take a beating and keep on carrying the football? Randle and Beckham are major downfield threats and Lee has shown the ability to hit them downfield. On 3rd and long, will Miles take a shot deep knowing that a possible interception could be the same as a punt. Taking a chance on a big play could be a big momentum swing. On the other hand, I pretty much expect Bama to get a fumble or INT and either take it all the way back or give their offense prime field position. Advantage: BAMA

Trent Richardson is averaging 6.6 yards per carry and Eddie Lacy is averaging 8.0. Behind their offensive line, they know how to pound the football. I think LSU cuts those averages in half. LSU counters with Spencer Ware (4.0 YPC) and Michael Ford (5.6). Alabama is giving up 1.8 YPC...ouch.

Alabama has had some problems with slow starts and short kickoffs. The short kickoffs could loom huge if LSU is able to return the ball to the 50 and get a score out of it. Both of these defenses should win most of the time, even though the respective offenses are pretty good. I'm looking for a defensive score by each team...or at least a turnover that gives the offense very good field position. The game could be won on special teams...perhaps by who can make their field goals.

LSU looks like the tougher team who plays with reckless abandon. Alabama seems well coached, and performs like a well-oiled machine. This is a tough game to pick, and Bama seems like the logical choice being at home. Nick Saban is undoubtedly the better coach. Les Miles, though, might be the best coach for the guys he has.

LSU 17 ALABAMA 16


JB