When I first spoke of the Republican race on June 7th, Rick Perry had not yet entered and I thought Tim Pawlenty had a chance. Well, Pawlenty dropped out rather quickly. And Perry was ahead in the polls for a while, but has since seen a sharp decline.
I said on June 7th that the ideal ticket for me would be Gingrich/Cain...and I still stand behind that. Of course, the actually likelihood may be a flipped version of that since Cain has basically doubled the support Gingrich has. I am surprised by how well Herman Cain has done. I really like him though.
There are 8 candidates right now that are at least getting one point in the polls. Of those, we can throw out Huntsman, Santorum, and Bachmann. I don't think any of them have made it to 5% yet, and I'm sure once the primaries start they will be quick dropouts. Ron Paul has more support, but he is almost un-electable so I don't think he stands a chance at getting nominated - but I guess you never know. So that leaves four candidates who I think stand a chance to get nominated: Cain, Romney, Perry, and Gingrich.
Cain - He is a businessman who is a Washington outsider. That makes him appealing. I think he could beat Obama. For one, he is black...so that should take away at least some of the black vote. Liberals are puzzled at what they can do to him. The tea party, which they have labeled as racist, support Cain. A conservative black man? They don't know what to do.
Romney - Everyone says he is the most electable. So people are going to have to decide, do they want him to be the nominee because he's the most electable - and we'll just hold our noses and vote like we did for McCain, or should we nominate someone who will be a good president.
Perry - I like Perry, but I don't know if he can get past the bad debating. Perhaps he would make the best president. He is solid and has been a very successful governor. But Obama would torch him in a debate, and I think that would cost him the election. Obama has a way of saying a bunch of nothing, but making it sound like he said something...then making the other person look stupid. I don't know if Perry could handle it.
Gingrich - Policies, check. Resume, check. He's unquestionably the smartest guy among these four. He could debate Obama...and he would say a bunch of substance, and something the American people could buy into. But then there's his social past, and he's kind of a loose canon. So, not the perfect candidate...and I don't know if people think he'd be a good president as much as he is a lawmaker...but I do think he could win if nominated.
I think any of the above four could be nominated, and could win. Likelihood of winning the election if nominated: 1. Romney 2. Cain 3. Gingrich 4. Perry. Who would I like to be president: 1. Gingrich 2. Perry or Cain 4. Romney. There is no perfect candidate, but I think we've got enough good ones that would do a far superior job that Obama is. Hopefully the American people will see that.
I don't know how to create a link on here, but copy and paste this to your address bar:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtjfMjjce2Y&feature=youtube_gdata_player
JB
No comments:
Post a Comment