Friday, August 26, 2011

Vanderbilt Commodores





5-7 (1-7)

Week 1: Sept. 3rd vs. Elon - Elon is in North Carolina, I had to look that up. They were a .500 team in 1-AA last year so I don't see any problem for Vandy in James Franklin's first game.

Week 2: Sept. 10th vs. Connecticut - I listed this as 14th best non-conference game this year, hopefully Vandy won't disappoint. UConn won the sorry big east last year with an 8-4 record even though they lost to Michigan, Temple, and Louisville 26-0. But there are 16 returning starters from that team including 9 on defense, which matches up well against Vanderbilt's experience on offense with all 11 returning. Vandy's strength will be the running game and UConn has all 4 starters back on the D-line and 3 of them are seniors, so I'll give UConn the edge when the 'Dores have the ball. But UConn lost their 1,758 yard rusher, Jordan Todman, and the QB from last year, they will most likely be relying on a true freshman at QB in this game. If Chris Marve and Casey Hayward can live up to expectations this could be a huge win for Vandy. Being at home, I'm going with Vanderbilt to win a low-scoring game.

Week 3: Sept. 17th vs. Ole Miss - Three straight home games for Vanderbilt to start the season is a huge plus. In '05 Vandy started the season 4-0 and in '08 they started 5-0, those two seasons were the best of the last decade...so getting off to a nice start is key. Both of those years they beat Ole Miss, and this year they have a good shot to do the game again. There won't be a lot of high flying in this game, as both offenses strength is the running game, behind veteran offensive lines. I don't expect much this season out of either defense, especially Ole Miss'...this game will be determined by which team's D-line can reek havoc on the other's backfield. With Kendrell Lockett, I give the advantage to Ole Miss as the rest of the D-line for both teams is near the bottom of the league. It should be a good game, and as much as I want Vandy to win, I'm picking Ole Miss.

Week 4: Sept. 24th at South Carolina - The 'Dores first road test will be a tough one, going to Columbia, SC. The Cocks will be coming off a home gave vs. Navy, which could be interesting but not the grueling SEC fight Vandy might need to pull off an upset. South Carolina has more talent then Vanderbilt in every single unit, and being at home, I've got to go with The Gamecocks.

Week 5: Bye - This comes at the right time because they will need to rest after playing USC and they will need to develop some tricks to put up their sleeves going to Tuscaloosa.

Week 6: October 8th at Alabama - If Vanderbilt could win this one it would be a monumental upset. But I don't think it's going to happen...not even close. If Vandy can cover the spread that would be a victory for their program.

Week 7: October 15th vs. Georgia - After a couple of really tough road games, this is a game Vandy has a chance to win. As always, Georgia will be coming in with bigger and better athletes, but how will they be mentally? I think this is a pretty fair matchup, I've got Georgia rated only slightly higher than Vandy in most of the units, with the exception being QB where UGA has a distinct advantage. In the end, it's hard to pick against Georgia, they should win the game, so I predict they will....sending Vandy to 2-4.

Week 8: October 22nd vs. Army - Army went to a bowl game for the first time in 14 years last year, beating SMU in the Armed Forces Bowl. They return their QB, top two rushers and top 3 receivers from that team...but so does Vandy. This will be a tough game, but one that the 'Dores must win if they want to have any chance at a bowl game. I think they get it done at home.

Week 9: October 29th vs. Arkansas - This will be another tough matchup for Vandy, where the other team just has superior athletes at almost every position. Still, with the game in Nashville you never know what could happen. Arkansas' offense should be clicking on all cylinders by this point in the year and I don't think Vandy's D will be able to stop them. Hogs win.

Week 10: November 5th at Florida - Yet another tough SEC game. Vanderbilt's stregth's should be negated by the Gators' stout D-line, and if John Brantley's figured things out by this point it could mean trouble as Florida's athletes run all over the swamp on Vandy's D. Florida takes this one.

Week 11: November 12th vs. Kentucky - By my count this is the 6th winnable home game for Vanderbilt. If they can win them all then this could be a huge game for bowl eligibility. Vanderbilt matches up well against the Cats as I have UK's D-line rated the least in the SEC. If Vandy's running game can get established it could be a long day for Kentucky. This is Week 11, so Joker Philips should have been able to mold this offense a little bit, but I'm not sure they will keep up with the 'Dores in Nashville. Vandy gets SEC win #1.

Week 12: November 19th vs. Tennessee - This is a rivalry in the sense that Vanderbilt really wants to beat Tennessee. And the last couple of years UT has needed to beat Vandy in order to go to a bowl game, and that adds a little salt. I think this is a good matchup with both lines matching up pretty equally. I think UT's D-line has really good potential and could be excelling by this time of year and this game is at home. There are other areas like WR were the Vols are young and should be improved by late November, in time for this game. It could be really close, but I'm taking Tennessee.

Week 13: November 26th at Wake Forest - The visitor is 7-2 in this series since 1990. That is a good sign especially if Vandy can get to this game with 5 wins, and a chance to make a bowl game. The bad news is Wake Forest has 17 returning starters, but it was a 3-9 team. Still, the 'Dores have 19 returning starters and if they can survive the SEC schedule without too many injuries they should be in a position to win this game. Vanderbilt is due for a win in this series, I am going with them.


JB

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