Thursday, August 18, 2011
LSU Tigers
9-3 (6-2)
Week 1: September 3rd vs. Oregon - I'm writing this on July 26th so I don't know for sure what these two teams will be ranked coming in, but I'm assuming they'll both be in the Top 5, which makes this a huge game - at a neutral site. Oregon has 11 returning starters, 6 on offense and 5 on defense, but they have their main play makers back from last year's team. You never know what will happen on the first game of the season, but what I do know is that neither team will be in mid-season form in a huge matchup. Oregon's offense relies on rhythm and tempo for their fast-paced style, how much will that be affected with no preseason games to prepare for live-action? Oregon has speed, LSU has more. In addition, LSU played North Carolina in the Georgia Dome last year for the Chick-Fil-A kickoff so this group has started the year in this type of game before. The more I think about it, the more I lean towards LSU, so I'm going with the Tigers.
Week 2: September 10th vs. Northwestern State - This is the game teams would typically schedule first, but Les Miles does everything backwards. If my prediction is correct on the Oregon game, I think LSU will be #1 or #2 entering this game, and they will have no problem here....big big win at home.
Week 3: September 15th at Mississippi State - Many people probably don't see this one as a tough game to call, but I do. MSU will be 5 days removed from what is usually a hard-hitting matchup with Auburn, while LSU has Northwestern State the week before. When I go down my unit rankings, I see a very even game with the receivers, O-line, D-line, and secondary all having negligible differences. Jordan Jefferson is an athletic senior QB who shouldn't be rattled by a hostile environment on Thursday night in Starkville. But Chris Relf is solid and I give the edge to State there as well as their proven backfield. I think LSU has more talent at linebacker and I look at State's offense as #4 in the league vs. LSU's #4 defense. But I've got LSU at #7 on offense vs. MSU's #5 D, and being at home, and because I want them to win the game really really bad, I'm picking State to eek out a win and end LSU's 11 game win streak in this series.
Week 4: September 24th at West Virginia - The Mountaineers have had some offseason coaching turmoil, but they should be able to put that behind them by late September. They have 12 returning starters including 8 on offense. LSU won this game 20-14 last year in Baton Rouge. This will most likely be LSU's third Top 25 opponent in 4 weeks since WVU has a light schedule before this game. The Tigers will have their hands full in foreign territory and may still be reeling from a loss in Starkville. I think West Virginia pulls a fast one and beats LSU...kicking them to the curb at 2-2.
Week 5: October 1st vs. Kentucky - If my predictions are correct and LSU will have lost two in a row coming into this game, that is the classic recipe for a beatdown here as LSU returns home. In the last meeting between these two teams, UK won in Lexington when LSU was #1...but the Tigers survived and eventually won the national title that year. It's very possible LSU could be #1 heading into this game again, but I don't think we'll get the same result in Red Stick. LSU wins big.
Week 6: October 8th vs. Florida - I think this is a very even matchup between two teams full of talent. For a few years this was the primo matchup of the year, but it faded a little bit two years ago because of LSU and last year because of Florida. On paper, I don't think there's enough discernable difference between these two teams to pick a winner. But the game's in Baton Rouge, probably at night, and Florida is in a stretch of 5 consecutive SEC games and coming off Alabama the week before. So I'm picking LSU.
Week 7: October 15th at Tennessee - Everybody remembers the finish to this game last year, and hopefully this game can be that good again. I was very surprised Tennessee was able to keep up with LSU in 2010, especially on the road. But with the game in Knoxville, I'm not so sure this won't be another close game. The last time these two teams met in Knoxville, 2006, it was a classic. In fact, the last 3 regular season meeting between these two have been classics...and the 2007 SEC Championship game was a good game. So why not expect anything different here? I give LSU the edge at the lines, but UT's got enough play makers to keep it close. Still, LSU wins the game.
Week 8: October 22nd vs. Auburn - This is one of the best games in the SEC every year, and it usually has a lot to say about who wins the West. I'm not so sure it will this year since Auburn lost everyone, but you never know. I think LSU beats Auburn in every single category except running back. The game is in Death Valley...and while Auburn will have some fight, LSU wins the game.
Week 9: Bye - This bye couldn't come at a better time with Alabama next. At this point in the year I'm predicting LSU to be 6-2, but have won 4 straight games. But they could easily be 7-1 or even 8-0, making this next game huge.
Week 10: November 5th at Alabama - This is my #1 game of the year. It's #1 because there's almost a 50/50 chance both these teams are undefeated heading into the game. And both these teams have a week off in Week 9 to prepare for this game. It's a great game every year and it will have major SEC West implications. In whatever shape LSU's defense is at the beginning of the year, it will probably be close to Alabama at the top of the league by this point of the season. This game will have virtually no passing except on third down and it will come down to who wants it more at the line of scrimmage. Experience, talent, these teams are about the same. The only real difference I can see is the game is in Tuscaloosa and I'm going to go with Alabama.
Week 11: November 12th vs. Western Kentucky - Whether they win or lose at Alabama, this will be a nice game to follow so they can heal up and prepare for Ole Miss...easy win.
Week 12: November 19th at Ole Miss - Ole Miss takes this game very seriously and they have won 2 of the last 3 in the series. By this point of the season one or both of these coaches will probably be on the hot seat...most likely Houston Nutt. If Jordan Jefferson or whoever plays QB for LSU is not able to put it all together by late November this could present an opportunity for Ole Miss' poor defense. At home, in a rivalry setting, if the Rebs can be opportunistic in this game and can get their play makers in open space they've got a great shot. I don't think they will, however, and the Tigers will win the game.
Week 13: November 25th vs. Arkansas - This game is always a wild one. I'm glad this game moved back to the Friday after Thanksgiving, it is so entertaining...although the Iron Bowl was a suitable replacement. LSU's secondary should be in tip top shape by the time this game is played, which makes it very interesting against Arkansas' receivers. Surprisingly, Arkansas has won 3 of the last 4 games in this rivalry. Who knows what will happen, plain and simple...but I'm going with LSU in Baton Rouge.
JB
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